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Apolitical voters plump for the devil they know, argues GRAEME ORR THE QUEENSLAND Labor government was returned with a comfortable majority, albeit with a small majority of votes. But a huge swing and a hung Parliament was expected, so there will be months of reflection and soul-searching amongst practitioners and students of politics. A couple of bogeymen have already been summonsed. Did opinion polls lull the LNP into a false sense of security? Did opposition Leader Springborg conjure memories of the old Nationals, and deter the supposedly sophisticated suburbs of Brisbane? Or did Premier Bligh morph from potential villain to historic heroine in her frenetic final days of campaigning? We have been here before. The 2004 HowardLatham election springs to mind. An ageing government appears on the ropes, but a resurgent opposition falls short at the final hurdle. Commentators search for answers in entrails of the final days of the campaign, or in some (previously unnoticed) superiority in the incumbent leadership. We routinely ignore one obvious factor: compulsory voting. Compulsion gets-out-the-vote. This is typically understood in the limited sense of sparing parties the expense and innovation of inspiring their likely supporters. But compulsion works in a more fundamental way. It favours governments because it usually reinforces incumbency. Invariably, the electorate reports it is as motivated by positives (liking one party) as negatives (disliking the alternatives). But that bald statistic masks a subtle truth. Most who feel positively about a party do so because they identify with it. They are the rusted-on. But staunches do not decide elections. Elections are decided by the lukewarm voters who, at best, have a weak identification with a party or leader. They tend to be apolitical rather than policy-oriented. They drift, stick temporarily and eventually shift, for negative reasons. Their disillusionment, when strong enough, enacts the truism that oppositions dont win elections, governments lose them. In Australia, elections are rarely profound affairs. There are few deep policy or ideological divisions. Times of economic or social tumult are uncommon. This placidity is hardly a bad thing. We might prefer more political engagement, but not at the cost of well-being. In itself, this gives governments an inherent advantage. Apoliticals plump for the devil they know. It is less a case of are you better off than you were three years ago? than could you be bothered with a change? Thus, governments lasting one (and even two or three) decades have been the post-war norm. Compulsory voting reinforces that advantage. Governments tend to bleed support over time almost inevitably, given a mild cynicism fed by the media. Momentum builds for change, even towards an opposition about whom floating voters are quite ignorant. Opponents of the government become energised. Opinion polls, from mid-term until well into the campaign, tend to exaggerate opposition support. They magnify grumbles and dissatisfactions. Yet when push comes to shove, tepid supporters of the government turn up on polling day. The media wrongly attributes this to a late swing. Such votes may express little enthusiasm, but votes arent weighted according to passion. These votes speak of an absence of no confidence rather than an emphatic vote of confidence in the government. At federal elections there is no choice. We must choose between Labor and Liberal or spoil our ballot. In Queensland and New South Wales, lukewarm government supporters could protest by voting for a minor party and not passing on preferences. But they rarely do. Compulsory voting engenders a sense that one should take part in the choice of government. Floating voters do not plump for the opposition until they are fed up. In the meantime, to protest vote implies a degree of negative feeling that is not yet present. We overlook the effect of compulsory voting partly because it is buried in the structure of the electoral system, in our customary conception of democracy itself. I am not questioning compulsory voting. Its a valuable if indirect way of encouraging political engagement. It can minimise civic marginalisation, if at the expense of electoral vibrancy, since parties chase the votes of the hardly engaged rather than those with deeper motivations. Ironically, debates about compulsory voting usually assume it has a progressive effect. It supposedly aids left-wing parties by increasing turnout amongst the young, new immigrants and the poor. We forget, however, that compulsory voting is innately conservative. Not in partisan terms, but in conserving incumbent governments. This is revealed in several ways. Australian politics was much more volatile prior to compulsory enrolment and voting in the 1910s1920s. Since then, conservatives have dominated federally and Labor at state level. Conservatives may have an advantage in economic management and defence, and Labor in social services and egalitarianism. But these advantages are more in perception than innate. Alone they are too weak to explain the patterns of dominance without compulsory voting magnifying those patterns by entrenching incumbents. But it is not all bad news for oppositions. Over the past several decades, as politics has become less ideological, when an opposition finally grabs government it is able to hang on for three to four terms, provided it makes a good fist of management. Graeme Orr researches electoral law at the University of Queensland and is a member of the Democratic Audit of Australia. This article first appeared in the Canberra Times. Photo: Andrew Jeffrey